It may come as a surprise that several European countries are not joining forces and convening an international peace conference. Turkey has on several occasions discussed negotiations in Istanbul, this would be obvious. It is not right for the world community to say that the military operations Russia is carrying out in Ukraine can last for months or years without anyone intervening, and through the diplomatic route, trying to mediate and produce working papers that can be submitted for parties and which can then be the basis for a peace agreement and normal trade relations in Europe.

This is a humble attempt to show a direction that may contain proposals that can help resolve the deadlock in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. I am not an expert in these matters, nor do I have in-depth knowledge of these countries. But this is an attempt to show strategies and solutions that may push for the peace process and give the Ukrainian people and peace, and normalize and stabilize international trade.

_{Info: google translatet 17 juli 2022}

Silent wonder

Today we can read in abcnyheder.no with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expects that the War in Ukraine can last for several years. Boris Johnson has also stated in several media that we can expect the war to last for several years. There is no doubt that they must have good intelligence when they come up with these gloomy predictions. But the world community must have an optimism and belief that diplomacy can win over military battles on the battlefield. That is why we must activate the diplomacy of Italian, Finnish, German, French and British as soon as possible in our efforts to find a diplomatic solution. I am aware that there have been many conversations between head of state and leadership in Ukraine and Russia. But it may come as a surprise that there have been no more formalized negotiations with diplomacy at the center.

We are not in 1945 and I do not understand that it is the military geographical location of countries that must constitute the possible negotiating solution and the negotiating position of the parties. I hope that with France and Germany at the forefront of the diplomatic negotiations, which will hopefully start now, not until July 2022, will lead to a solution. The first step is to prepare some working papers, in the coming days, which can form the basis for the possible future peace negotiations.

Appendix:

New challenges for the world community June 24, 2022

Conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the violent Russian military operations on Ukrainian soil, leads not only to destruction and death in Ukraine, where both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers die and many civilians as well. This conflict has now developed into an energy crisis and a humanitarian crisis, as several of the world’s poorest countries cannot obtain grain from Ukraine, which is Europe’s treasury.

In addition, we have inflation and rising rents. This, together with supply problems after Covid-19, has put European economies under pressure and appears to be stagnating.

Where are the heads of state who dare to say that enough is enough and that this conflict must end. This conflict is an endless screw, and the current situation is leading to a military escalation day by day. This is completely unsustainable for Europe. The Ukrainian and Russian people have suffered enough, the time has come to find a negotiated solution and normalize conditions in Europe.

We need to start rebuilding Ukraine, and in order for this to be financially sensible, we also need to re-establish normal trade relations in Europe, both in terms of goods, services and energy. It is obvious that if this does not happen, it will be very difficult to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. Therefore, the model I am talking about here and the solutions that emerge are possibly an important part of a peace agreement and the reconstruction and financing of the country. We must be optimistic and dare to make demands on the parties, and here I am also thinking of the Budapest Memorandum and the Minsk 2 agreement. It is completely incomprehensible that no one is trying to negotiate with Ukraine and Russia within a structured framework. I would think that there should be a lot of tools in the toolbox and a lot of mechanisms to screw on. We must be optimistic and believe that the Russian and Ukrainian governments want to start negotiations on reality now.

Establishment of an International European Conciliation Body

The time has come to establish a Conciliation Institution that can mediate between the parties. Just as in the labor market one uses a conciliation institution when the parties cannot reach an agreement in the labor market. In the same way, an International Conciliation Body can be used to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. This can also be seen as a consulting presentation.

The working methods of the conciliation institution could be the following:To establish a lasting peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine

1.To establish a lasting peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

2. To contribute to a plan for the reconstruction of Ukraine.

3. To help ensure that crops can be safely exported from Ukraine.

4. Contribute to the restoration of normal international trade relations.

Foto inn her

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, host of possible peace talks.

Excerpt from the model for peace negotiations www.euruo.com

The French president and the German chancellor negotiate in a possible International Conciliation Institution. Where their foreign ministers can take part in the negotiations.

French President Emmanuel Macron

Olaf Scholz German Chancellor

Diplomacy can not involve emotions and must have a neutral policy

We humans are herd animals and have a strong urge to follow the strong alpha males, and this is also seen in international politics, where the heads of state, where he has a different attitude to the diplomatic solutions than the majority, are publicly mocked and humiliated. It seems that this is more about revenge and emotion than finding constructive solutions for the Ukrainian people, who have suffered so much.

The Russian people also have a desire to live in peace and buy goods and services on the international market, this they too must be allowed to do, in the same way as the Ukrainian people. We must focus on the fact that the people of these countries can live well and safely in the future and we will once again have stability and peace in Europe.

We sympathize with the Ukrainian people, and if we are to succeed in achieving peace, both countries must make concessions and make compromises, although it can be very emotional and difficult for the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian people in these times to make concessions. . But the advantage is that you save many human lives and can quickly get started with the reconstruction of the country. In Europe, we must dare to pursue an independent European foreign, trade and security policy.

Cereals and other crops are shipped from Odessa

Of course, the UN must demand that the crops grown in Ukraine can be safely exported to the countries that want to buy these goods. The world cannot be a model for famine and disasters in large parts of the world due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The world community cannot model the current situation without intervening deeply diplomatically.

If the war lasts 100 days more and we estimate that 100 soldiers fall on each side every day, then Ukraine will lose 10,000 soldiers and Russia the same. Thus, an extension of the war of 100 days will lead to the loss of 20,000 soldiers and many civilians. Therefore, it must be in everyone’s interest that the fighting ceases and that a peace agreement is reached as soon as possible. We must ask ourselves should 50,000 or 100,000 more young soldiers die in this conflict? It seems very strange if you can not influence the parties involved, so that there is a quick end to the battles on the battlefield.

Of course, it is Ukraine that decides whether they want to relinquish land for peace. There is no one today who can say with certainty what the outcome of the conflict will be, but we know that there is no point in winning on the battlefield if the fundamental conflicts are not resolved. That analysts and politicians are talking about a long-standing war of attrition and a war of attrition is completely incomprehensible, without at least starting to focus on structured peace negotiations.

The Ukrainian and Russian peoples want peace and find it difficult to see the purpose of these extensive military operations, so solutions must and must be drawn up for the parties. Solution proposal prepared by a Conciliation Institution, in which several of the major countries in Europe are involved. These proposals must then be submitted to the Russian and Ukrainian governments.

In the International Conciliation Body, France and Germany must play a prominent role. In addition to these countries, Italy, the United Kingdom and Finland must be members of the Conciliation Body. These countries must be the basis for the forthcoming negotiations. This will result in rapid decision-making processes and the way in which working papers are prepared and submitted to Ukraine and Russia. Turkey is hosting the negotiations and it is the Turkish Foreign Minister who is hosting and conveying the message from the Conciliation Institution.

Foreign Ministers or Deputy Foreign Ministers for possible peace talks in Istanbul July 2022.

Thus, it is a matter of foreign ministers or deputy foreign ministers from these 8 countries devoting the necessary time and resources to concrete and constructive negotiations. Of course, heads of state from these countries can also take part in the negotiations.

Follow-up group of countries and organizations that can provide advice and support to the Conciliation Institution

In addition to this International Conciliation Body, there will be countries and organizations that have observation status and advisory status. USA, China, India, the Baltic countries, Poland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Hungary. In addition, EU Representation and OSCE. (Of course, more countries and organizations can participate than the proposal outlined here).

To say that peace talks do not make sense while both parties feel they have momentum on the front is too cheap for the world community. We must believe in diplomacy and be optimistic. Posterity must know that modern humans made a real effort to stop the conflict – July 2022.

Only posterity can say whether it succeeded or not, or it became the germ of an coming peace.

Sanctions cannot force Russia to the negotiating table

The world is big and as several analysts have shown, sanctions are not the solution, but just help to shift alliances and worsen international trade. To believe that it is a viable path, to weaken Russia economically and militarily is a dead end that does not result in peace and stability in Europe. History has clearly shown that.

Property rights are inviolable

It may come as a surprise that the world community finds it legal to seize houses, ships and businesses owned by Russian businessmen. Looks like the world community is acting like a banana republic. These businessmen have no part in the political leadership of Russia and can not influence the Russian government. As I said, one of the foundations of democracy is the inviolability of property. Therefore, it is obvious that the frozen assets must be released, and this must appear as part of the working documents that must be prepared and which are part of a draft peace agreement. Some people have put forward the so-so ingenious idea that one should take these funds and use it for the reconstruction of Ukraine. In my view, this must be described as a very undemocratic and strange idea.

The main points of contention

As I see it, the main points of contention are the Donbas and the Crimean peninsula. If these difficult issues are resolved, I believe that the way has been paved for further constructive negotiations.

Regarding the Donbas, we must ask ourselves whether Ukraine is willing to give more autonomy to this region within Ukraine’s borders and whether Russia can accept this. One of the main objectives of the special military operations was to protect the citizens of the Donbas. The Minsk II agreement also provided for more autonomy for the Donbas.

Facts box from wikipedia.org Donbass:

Demographics

“The modern Donbass is a predominantly Russian-speaking area. According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of the residents of Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% of Luhansk Oblast. [1]

According to the 2001 Ukrainian census, ethnic Ukrainians make up 58% of Luhansk Oblast’s population and 56.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians make up the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% respectively in the two oblasts. [2] ”Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbass

Regarding the Crimean peninsula, Russia wishes to still use the naval base in Sevastopol and at the same time own a larger part of the peninsula. Russia is used to renting or leasing the naval base and Russia also has a leasing agreement with Finland where the Finns rent a canal which is Russian territory. It is conceivable that a lease agreement can be legally concluded between the countries, and that thiscontract between Russia and Ukraine will be internationally recognized and ratified, and at the same time the international sanctions against the Russian people will be lifted.

_{Sevastopol, Crimea, Russia – July 28, 2019: Khersones sailboat passes near the parade system of warships at the Navy Day parade in Sevastopol Bay, Crimea}. _{©muhor/123RF.COM}

Sevastopol, Crimea, Russia – July 28, 2019: Khersones sailboat passes near the parade system of warships at the Navy Day parade in Sevastopol Bay, Crimea. ©muhor/123RF.COM

Exit strategy

There is no doubt that if lasting peace and stability are to be achieved in Europe, then both countries must feel that they have achieved something by concluding a peace agreement. These conditions extend beyond Ukraine and Russia and must provide a holistic understanding of the countries’ future development and international cooperation and trade.

Ukraine must be assured of its security and tangible guarantees of how it will finance its reconstruction.

Somehow, the Russian government must get guarantees that the ethnic Russian minority in the Donbas will get a form of government so that there will be peace and stability in the area, whether it is through greater autonomy or other useful constructive solutions that the negotiations culminate in.

Russia must be assured that it can use its naval base and the part of the Crimean peninsula on which they then enter into a leasing agreement with Ukraine.

At the same time as all sanctions against Russia are lifted, new concrete trade agreements will be drawn up between the European countries, the USA and others. and Russia.

In addition to the lifting of trade sanctions against the Russian people, sanctions against the Russian businessmen will also be lifted and their frozen assets will be released.

Russia and Ukraine conclude a gas agreement in the spirit of peace talks.

Summary

The international community must respond to what Russia has said about its special operations in Ukraine, namely to gain more autonomy for the people of Donbas. In addition, the logical assumption is that they still have a desire to preserve their naval base on the Crimean peninsula, in addition to using the part of Crimea that they have annexed. If the sanctions with Russia are to end, Russia and Ukraine must formalize a lease-leasing agreement in order for the international community to lift the sanctions against Russia. An important question, of course, is what Russia is willing to pay for the lease.

Whether Ukraine agrees to solutions that involve more autonomy for the Donbas within Ukraine’s borders and a leasing agreement with Russia on Crimea, while at the same time receiving the necessary security guarantees from selected countries. And there is a solution to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, then the way is paved for a positive outcome to the conflict.

Working papers:

Working paper no. 1

Peace plan:

1. Security guarantees for Ukraine that are being ratified internationally.

Negotiation on Donba’s future status and possible greater autonomy.

3. Ukraine declares that it has no plans for NATO membership.

4. Ukraine guarantees that no nuclear weapons will be deployed in the country.

5. The Russian language position in Ukraine?

6. Possible dual citizenship for citizens of selected Ukrainian areas?

Crimean status and naval base – possible Leasing / lease agreement between Russia and Ukraine?

8. Ukraine contributes to adequate water supply to Crimea from Kherson.

9. A possible toll road from Crimea through Mariupol to Donbass.

10. Reconstruction of Ukraine.

11. Re-establishment of international cooperation relations.

12. Russia and Ukraine conclude trade agreement, including gas supplies from Russia.

Working papers 2 to 12

A. Reconstruction of infrastructure in Ukraine: Bridges, railways, roads.

B. Reconstruction of schools, hospitals and public buildings in Ukraine.

C. Reconstruction of urban and rural housing in Ukraine.

D. Water supply agreement Water from “Kershon” to the Crimean peninsula.

E. Tollroad from Crimea to Donbass.

F. US trade with Russia is resumed and sanctions lifted.

G. Germany trade with Russia is normalized and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is approved

H. whereas EU trade with Russia is being normalized and sanctions against Russia and its citizens are being lifted,

I. Concrete proposals to Ukraine on which countries undertake which construction tasks.

J. Exports of cereals and crops from the port city of Odessa.

K. Plan for financing the reconstruction of Ukraine.

L. Plan for the establishment of new businesses and tourism development in Ukraine.

Example: Customs road – toll road from Crimea to Donbass (google map)

Negotiations Minsk 2 – 2015

MINSK, BELARUS – Feb 11, 2015: President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko before talks of the leaders of states in the Norman format in Minsk. Photo 123RF.COM / Mykhaylo Palinchak

Info: Google translatet 17 juli 2022

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