16 countries can form the framework for upcoming peace negotiations alongside Ukraine and Russia. Could possible peace talks begin in March 2025?
In recent weeks, there have been significant changes in the statements coming from both the Russian and Ukrainian governments. It appears that the parties are closer to initiating peace negotiations than they have been before.
Both the Ukrainian and Russian people desire peace and are struggling to see the purpose of these extensive military operations between their brother nations. Therefore, solution proposals must be developed to be presented to the parties, proposals that have been crafted by several countries in Europe, with the USA also playing a crucial role.
I have proposed an International Reconciliation Institution composed of 16 countries, led by the UN or with a UN-appointed negotiation leader.
Turkey has expressed a strong desire to host the upcoming peace negotiations.
It makes sense to find a reasonably neutral country with a pleasant and warm climate for these talks.
On January 1st, Denmark became a member of the UN Security Council, and as a significant and important contributor and partner to Ukraine, Denmark could play a considerable role in efforts to initiate forthcoming peace negotiations.
Denmark has a highly experienced and skilled diplomat in their Foreign Minister and former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen. He has expressed Denmark’s support for Ukraine in light of Denmark’s new membership in the UN Security Council.
He has emphasized that Denmark will work towards a fair and sustainable peace in Ukraine in accordance with the UN Charter and international law. He has also stated that Denmark will continue to demand full accountability for Russia’s unlawful military actions and work to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence.Lars Løkke Rasmussen has highlighted the importance of standing by Ukraine and working to uphold international law and order.
He has also mentioned that Denmark will strive to ensure that all violations of international law are investigated.Both Ukrainian and Russian politicians have expressed their desire for a multilateral format. It is essential that countries allocate the necessary time and resources for concrete and constructive negotiations and activate their corps of skilled diplomats to participate in the upcoming peace talks.
In addition to this International Reconciliation Institution, there will be countries and organizations with observer and advisory status.The time has come for peace negotiations to commence in March 2025. We must believe in diplomacy and remain optimistic. Future generations must know that modern humans made a real effort in 2025 to stop the conflict. Only time can tell if it was successful or not, or if these negotiations were the seeds of a future peace.
But the international community must hold Russia accountable for the conditions they imposed when they invaded Ukraine, and the peace negotiations must be based on these conditions.
As I have previously stated, we can outline the overarching points of contention between the countries and between Russia and the rest of Europe and the USA, which must also be included, while peace negotiations are ongoing, as the issues are interconnected, even though the primary task is to achieve peace and alleviate the suffering of the Ukrainian people.
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The Major Points of Contention from Russia’s Perspective
From my perspective, the original main points of contention from Russia are as follows: They do not want foreign military presence in Ukraine, nor do they want Ukraine to become a NATO member; additionally, they wish for the country to remain neutral. Russia seeks more self-governance/autonomy for Donbass and wants the Crimean Peninsula to remain under Russian control. They also want the Russian minority in the country to have rights and the opportunity to cultivate their language and culture, and to be educated where Russian is a primary language and significant in areas with many Russians. Subsequently, they have demanded that four regions in Ukraine be subordinated and incorporated into Russia. Beyond these issues concerning Ukraine, there are also other matters in Europe to consider, such as demilitarized zones, the rights of Russian minorities in the former Soviet Union, future trade relations, and the lifting of sanctions, as well as Russian visa regulations for the rest of Europe. Russia generally wants an understanding of their viewpoints in geopolitical matters.
Ukraine Seeks Security, Peace, and Reconstruction of the Country
From Ukraine’s perspective, peace and security are paramount, and they do not wish to cede land for peace. Furthermore, they want Russian soldiers to be absent from the country when negotiations begin. Ukraine demands a complete end to Russia’s military occupation of their territories and wishes for their sovereignty and territorial integrity to be restored. Their future security policy and defense strategy aim for full NATO membership as soon as possible to gain the Alliance’s full protection. They want to repatriate their prisoners of war, as well as the children and families who have ended up in Russia. Ukraine insists that Russia restore all damaged areas and infrastructure. They also expect that the countries that have supported them during this challenging time will contribute to the reconstruction of the country. Additionally, they have several important demands that must be resolved to enter a ceasefire or initiate peace negotiations.
Sanctions Cannot Force Russia to the Negotiation Table
The world is vast, and as several analysts have pointed out, sanctions are not the solution; they only serve to shift alliances and worsen international trade. Believing that weakening Russia economically and militarily is a viable path is a dead end that will not result in peace and stability in Europe. History has clearly demonstrated this.
Exit Strategy
There is no doubt that to achieve lasting peace and stability in Europe, both countries must feel they have gained something by entering into a peace agreement. These conditions go beyond Ukraine and Russia; a comprehensive understanding of the countries’ future development and international cooperation and trade must be included.
Ukraine must have certainty regarding its security and firm guarantees, both in terms of defense and support and financing for the reconstruction of the country.
In some way, the Russian government must receive guarantees that the ethnic Russian minority in Donbass will have a form of governance that ensures peace and stability in the area, whether through greater autonomy or other viable constructive solutions that the negotiations yield.
Russia must be assured that it can use its naval base and the part of the Crimean Peninsula with which it enters into a leasing agreement with Ukraine. Russia must also be assured that there will be no foreign soldiers/troops on Ukrainian soil during peacetime.
Simultaneously with the lifting of all sanctions against Russia, new concrete trade agreements between European countries, the USA, and Russia will be developed.
In addition to lifting trade sanctions against the Russian people, sanctions against Russian businessmen will also be lifted, and their frozen assets will be released.
Furthermore, Russia and Ukraine can enter into a gas agreement in the spirit of the peace negotiations.
The international community must address what Russia has stated about its special operations and why it entered Ukraine, namely to gain more self-governance for the residents of Donbass. Additionally, the logical assumption is that they still wish to maintain their naval base on the Crimean Peninsula and “utilize” the part of Crimea they have annexed. How a solution can be developed in the future that allows for coexistence on the Crimean Peninsula without Ukraine ceding land is something diplomats and peace researchers must continue to work on.
If sanctions against Russia are to cease, Russia and Ukraine must formalize a lease agreement for the international community to lift sanctions against Russia. A significant question is, of course, what Russia is willing to pay for the leasing agreement.
Whether Ukraine agrees to solutions that entail greater autonomy for Donbas within Ukraine’s borders and a leasing agreement with Russia regarding Crimea, and confirms that there will be no foreign troops in the country during peacetime, while receiving necessary security guarantees from selected countries, along with a solution for financing Ukraine’s reconstruction, could potentially pave the way for a positive resolution to the conflict. If these difficult issues are resolved, I believe the path for further constructive negotiations is cleared.
I hope that an article will soon be published that elaborates on the aforementioned matters and includes points for a peace plan.
O.M. Lassen, founder and owner of euruo.com
