Despite the seemingly entrenched conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is essential to explore areas of hope and potential openings for negotiations. The ability of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and President Vladimir Putin to initiate a new grain agreement is a positive sign and a significant step for both the Ukrainian and Russian economies.
It is crucial that efforts are made to determine whether Russia and Ukraine are willing to make concessions, allowing for the commencement of peace talks. While this article does not provide a comprehensive analysis, it aims to offer some perspectives that could contribute to initiating peace negotiations.
The Global Community Lacks an Exit Strategy
Several EU and NATO countries wholeheartedly support Ukraine, which is necessary. However, the major issue lies in the lack of concerted efforts to formulate sensible peace solutions and a sustainable strategy for both Ukrainian and Russian populations.
The current strategy appears to involve pushing Russia out of Ukraine and isolating the Russian people, effectively creating a new Iron Curtain across Europe. Unfortunately, this approach misunderstands the dynamics of peace, stability, and progress in Europe and the world at large.
Both the Ukrainian and Russian populations have suffered significantly under communism and during World War II. It is essential to prioritize de-escalation and bridge-building between the countries, emphasizing inclusion rather than exclusion. Both Russian and Ukrainian people aspire to live and thrive in a free and harmonious Europe.
Focusing solely on political leaders without considering the well-being of the people affected by this conflict is a limited approach. A broader perspective that values human connections and normal relations is crucial for lasting peace in Scandinavia, Europe, and the world as a whole.
There is no doubt that Erdogan and Putin can find common ground for a new grain agreement.
If you think you can solve this conflict without strong leaders, then you have to think again. There is only a sensible way to resolve the conflict and that is through trade and cooperation and interaction with the Russian people, the Russian business community and the Russian government.
The Russian Foreign Minister Mr. Lavrov said “that there are many conflicts in the world that we show no interest in” it is absolutely true that when there are conflicts in African and Muslim countries, this does not have our interest to the same extent, that does not mean that we are racist. But when an invasion takes place in the middle of Europe against white Christian people, the situation is completely different, we mobilize all our emotions and financial resources to help the Ukrainian brotherly people.
EUROPEAN LEADERS MUST STEP IN CHARACTER – Macron, Scholz, Orbán and David Cameron must also step up.
We in Europe must realize that it is necessary for the countries to play an active role and begin the necessary and long-term diplomatic work needed to end the war in Ukraine.
I have demonstrated before, and do so again in this article, that a conciliation institution in Istanbul can play a decisive role and a 15-2 format can help to prepare working papers that can be included in future peace negotiations in Istanbul.
Istanbul may be the obvious host for this important conference on grain trade between Ukraine and Russia. The conference may take place in February 2024 and may be organized by the UN and Turkey.
The two main players in the negotiations could be the President of Turkey, Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the UN Secretary-General, Mr. António Guterres. The hope must be to revive the grain agreement, which Russia pulled out of in July 2023. This agreement helped ensure the export of grain via the Black Sea, which is crucial for both Ukraine and Russia, two of the world’s largest grain producers.
The people of Ukraine must know that reconstruction of the country will begin as soon as possible. At the same time, the Russian people must be told that all sanctions against the country will be lifted and that the foreign companies that have left the country must, as far as possible, resume their activities in the country. This must be clearly communicated to the Russian people and business community.
As the situation is now, it is a matter of diplomatic contact anxiety and if a peace solution is to be reached, it is necessary to start work on getting preliminary working papers drawn up.
Both the Ukrainian and Russian people want peace and a future where they can live without fear of war, sanctions and isolation.
It makes no sense to try to weaken Russia’s economy in the long term?
We know that after the war, Ukraine will have to be rebuilt and that many countries will have to help pay for the reconstruction. If we are to have a strong and stable Europe, it is also necessary that Russia’s economy is strengthened and the energy sector is re-established, so that everyone can help reduce inflation and create growth and at the same time help pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Ukraine must be rebuilt and the Russian people must also live under normal conditions once the war is over.
We all want peace
I hope for the Ukrainian people that the war will end soon and they will be free from the terrible suffering they have lived under and where thousands have died.
As civilized people, we cannot allow opinion makers, military analysts, military personnel and politicians to be allowed to interpret the text unilaterally – and where the war may continue for several more years without anyone intervening and trying to resolve the conflict by diplomatic means.
It is important to focus on the people of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and find a solution that can promote peace, stability, prosperity and harmony for both countries. A conciliation institution that focuses on meeting the needs of the population and protecting the rights of minorities can be part of the solution.
A peace agreement will dampen inflation considerably and restore calm to the energy market and help stop recession in Europe and the USA. There is only one sensible way out of the crisis and that is to re-establish normal trade relations with Russia and the Russian people.
Peace negotiations are not about the Russian leader and the Ukrainian leader having to sit down and agree on a peace solution here and now, as is often simplified. But it is about long-term negotiations, to find an exit strategy for both countries, and where several countries participate in this process.
A strategy must be drawn up for the reconstruction of Ukraine and for achieving peace and stability in the country. A strategy for future cooperation and trade relations with over 140 million people in Russia must also be drawn up.
In order to begin work on actual peace negotiations, it is necessary for a group of countries to agree on a negotiation draft or an overall plan for initial peace negotiations. There is no point in talking to the Ukrainian and Russian governments if the world community (many countries) does not agree on a peace solution and future strategy for trade and cooperation.
After these working papers and soundings have been made, the basis for establishing a conciliation institution is laid. This must be located in a central location in the region, so that the logistical challenges are minimal for all parties.
Before peace negotiations can begin, it is necessary that the law passed by the Ukrainian parliament on July 20, 2022 be repealed. The law states that Ukraine cannot negotiate peace until all Russian troops are withdrawn from Ukraine and until Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are restored.
Here I have outlined some points that can be included in a possible future peace agreement:
Preliminary peace agreement and grain agreement:
1 The nuclear power plant becomes a demilitarized zone.
2 Rosselkhozbank gets access to the international payment system Swift.
3 Russian cargo ships gain better access to European ports and the international insurance system.
4 The pipeline for ammonia gas is reopened.
5 Ukraine will again be able to export grain.
6 Maritime mine clearance tasks.
7 No foreign troops on Ukrainian soil in peacetime.
8 Conversation on future trade policy and interaction in Europe
9 Conversation on Reconstruction of Ukraine
10 Coexistence on the Crimeanpeninsula
In addition to the above-mentioned matters, they could discuss: Autonomy for Donbas within Ukraine. Easing sanctions against Russian companies and releasing frozen assets.
Will calls on the UN to lead future peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. It is obvious that these will be conducted in Istanbul, which is a neutral city with historical and cultural ties to both countries.
Several politicians, both in Russia and Ukraine, have called for peace negotiations.
This policy of standing still must end and the necessary human diplomatic resources must be provided to initiate peace negotiations between the countries.
