The handling of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has clearly shown that it is now necessary to intervene diplomatically on a completely different level than hitherto. At the same time, we must realize that it is time to rethink the way we have handled the conflict. One is to send humanitarian aid and weapons to Ukraine and help refugees, another is to use the heavy diplomatic guns. You can read about this in this article which has been written to the Foreign Ministers and Deputy Foreign Ministers of several countries in Europe and not least to Russia and Ukraine in the hope of a speedy end to the conflict.
This article is machine translated into Ukrainian, German, Turkish, Russian and French. Link at the bottom of the article.
What has amazed me a lot in recent weeks is how politicians, analysts and the press handle and analyze the conflict. Statements like yes the conflict can last several months yet, or it can take more than a year. Russia may be considering using a strategic atomic bomb, or chemical or biological weapons. A statement that is also heard is that the time has not come for peace talks yet. (Implied that they should just bomb some cities yet and kill some 1000 people).
War strategies and distress and misery are analyzed and documented which also has its justification, but one is referential journalism, but I wish more critical questions were asked of one now why one does not abide by the agreement made in Budapest 1994 “Budapest memorandum “Was it a statement of intent or a real agreement?”. Furthermore, I miss the fact that foreign ministers posing with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are not being asked what exactly they want to do in the diplomatic field.
Have we completely lost our temper when, in 2022, we can be a model for absolutely terrible conditions, without doing everything we can, in a diplomatic way, to get the parties to conduct real diplomatic negotiations that can end the conflict now in the coming summer month? May 2022.
The peace-loving people of Ukraine and Russia do not want this conflict, and to stop the conflict, both parties must make concessions. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine can only be resolved if all aspects of the conflict are resolved at the same time. Here, the world community must be an important player and get started in reality negotiations now.
Excerpt from conversation The BBC had with UK Foreign Minister Liz Truss says “Russia sanctions should end only after withdrawal” Sanctions against Russia should only be lifted after a “full ceasefire and withdrawal” from Ukraine, says the Foreign Minister. Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60890431 27 March 2022.
It is positive that politicians are really focusing on ending sanctions against Russia.
Today I can read in the Danish newspaper Berlingske, which quotes Sky News, that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is no longer interested in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, but instead wants to take over as much territory as possible.
Today, US President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. writes. On Twitter, addressed to Russian President Vladimir Putin: “He will never succeed in dominating and occupying all of Ukraine”
Does not accept a divided Ukraine
As far as I understand it, European leaders and the United States will not be a model for Ukraine to be divided as another “North Korea and South Korea”. Thus we stand today, April 24, which is a major holiday in Russia and Ukraine, namely Orthodox Easter, with a conflict that appears to be deadlocked and cannot be resolved without new and powerful diplomatic negotiations.
It is necessary for the cards to be shuffled again and Germany, France and the United Kingdom, together with the government of Turkey, are mediators and prepare documents that can be submitted to the parties for a conflict resolution.
Peace talks in Istanbul
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said today that he wants the talks to continue in Istanbul and it is obvious that his Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu will lead the talks.
The conflict cannot be resolved through sporadic contacts between heads of state, the UN or the EU, or with the intervention of NATO officials.
We need to tell the parties to the conflict that high-level diplomatic negotiations must now take place. And that we can not at all tolerate that the brother nations and the people of Russia and Ukraine will suffer unimaginably during this conflict.
Foreign Ministers and Deputy Foreign Ministers “must take weeks off the calendar”
Therefore, it is imperative that Foreign Ministers and Deputy Foreign Ministers take a few weeks off the calendar to try to resolve the conflict.
It is my hope that they see this as a real opportunity, to have a breakthrough in the negotiations, and they later in life can look back on their careers in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and can say “that we did everything in our power for to resolve the conflict ”. We went to the capital of Turkey and were there for “two weeks” in an attempt to resolve the conflict. The posterity will show whether they came to terms with their great efforts to find a peace solution. But they can at least look back on their tenure and say that we truly tried. Perhaps they can write in their memoirs that they helped to resolve the conflict.
The time has come to speak in capital diplomatic letters, so that both the Ukrainian and Russian negotiators understand that there must be some concessions from both sides. It is a matter of course that the foreign ministers or deputy foreign ministers of these countries will take part in the new negotiations.
Some of the conflict areas
As far as I know, Ukraine has not ratified or implemented the Minsk II agreement from 2015. Therefore, this can be included as part of the forthcoming peace negotiations, the basis for further negotiations. Russia wants Donbass to gain more autonomy within Ukraine and that was the intention of the Minsk II agreement.
When the Ukrainian citizenship law was passed in 1991, all ethnic Russians who were in Ukraine when the citizenship law was passed were offered citizenship, but I do not know if Ukraine accepts dual Russian and Ukrainian citizenship, as stipulated in the 10 point agreement .
Regarding the Crimean peninsula, Russia has been there since the 1700s and 1800s and as late as 1954 the peninsula was under Russian rule, but was delivered to Ukraine in 1954. Russia has a naval base in Sevastopol and has previously entered into lease agreements of the naval base with Ukraine. Russia still wants to be able to use the naval base and the Crimean peninsula. Several surveys show that over 80% of the population of the Crimean peninsula want close ties with Russia.
In Ukraine, just over 17% are ethnic Russians and want their language to have a natural status in Ukraine. In addition, Russia wants a form of military neutrality in Ukraine and that no nuclear weapons be set up in the country. From the Russian side today, there is also a desire to connect the Crimean peninsula with the Donbass area. I will go into more detail on this, and show a possible solution in the draft peace.
Russia is a strong nation that can not be broken with economic sanctions, and is this policy in the long run not the most appropriate, if you want stability in Europe and increased trade and growth, isolationist policies have proven to be virtually ineffective.
As I see it, in parallel with the peace negotiations, it is important to work concretely with trade relations that the United Kingdom, France and Germany must help to develop and where the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is also included in these negotiations. Although I have only mentioned these 3 countries, other countries can of course participate, both Israel, Austria or the Nordic countries, or other countries that the parties may wish to participate in the major peace negotiations in Istanbul. The United States is also an important player in the peace process, but it may be an advantage for the European countries to try to enter into character, and together with Turkey to help lead these negotiations. As I said, I do not see the EU or the UN having the necessary weight to take part in real and concrete peace negotiations.
Draft 10-point peace agreement April 24, 2022
1. A ceasefire is concluded.
2.The conflict in the Donbas region is resolved on the basis of the Minsk II Agreement as a starting point.
3. The Russian use of the Crimean peninsula is ratified with an extended lease agreement which has a duration of 30 years.
4. Ukraine refrains from applying for NATO membership.
5. Russia receives guarantees that no nuclear weapons will be placed on Ukrainian soil.
6. Russian is also recognized as a natural language in Ukraine before teaching m.m.
7. Citizens of the Crimean peninsula and Luhansk and Donbas, dual citizenship if they so wish.
8. Ukraine receives security guarantees from selected countries and the agreement is ratified by the appropriate authority.
9. “Border road” and customs road – toll road is established, from Crimea to Donbass through Mariupol
10. Sanctions against Russia end – concrete trade policy agreements drawn up between Russia, Ukraine and other countries, including Turkey, Germany, UK, France.
Can the conflict really be cut out of cardboard for the above 10 points? or can these points be part of the working paper of the further diplomatic work to be done in Istanbul, this would be a good start.
The big bumps as I see it in the agreement are whether Russia will enter into an extended lease agreement. Also, the question is whether Ukraine will allow a customs and toll road from Crimea to Donbass through Mariupol.
But if we look at it soberly, and if there is a will for peace, then it must be said that there should be opportunities if these 10 interdependent points can be resolved by the great peace negotiations in Istanbul.
It is my hope that this can be a small contribution to a solution to the conflict for the benefit of the Ukrainian and Russian peoples and Europe as a whole. If the parties to the conflict do not want to be active players in the resolution of the conflict, I anticipate that support from Europe and the United States for Ukraine may ebb and we are in a deadlocked security situation which is unsustainable for all.
That is why I expect the Foreign Ministers or their Deputy Foreign Ministers who will be present throughout the negotiation period to speak such a clear diplomatic language so that the parties understand that now is the time for substantive negotiations.
The significance of the above agreement – Russia out of international sanctions and peace in Ukraine
With the above agreement, all international relations will be re-established, and there is no basis for sanctioning Russia, so they can once again begin to live and work in solidarity with the brother nation, and again become a natural part of the world community, without burdensome sanctions. With the agreement, Russia is also free of NATO in Ukraine, thereby improving their security situation.
Following the agreement, Ukraine will receive rental revenues and a possible agreement on stable gas supplies from Russia. And with Russia’s help, concluding the peace agreement in the Donbas region, so that there will be peace in the country again.
The country does not lose much by canceling the application for NATO membership. The fraternal nations must find a peaceful solution to the challenges that exist between the countries and the bombing of Ukraine must stop now. Security guarantees are provided to Ukraine by selected countries.
European Russian-Ukrainian Cooperation Organization – Draft Agreement April 24, 2022. EURUO
Óli M. Lassen
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Automatic translation into German from English word document
